So in the ongoing saga that involves trying to guess Apple's next move we're in the summer of 2008 looking at a few tidbits of information:
- The stock alert that a product shift will impact margins
- An aging iPod lineup
- The growing netbook market
- The ever falling price of memory
There are a couple of places where I can definitely see this playing out in the iPod Touch lineup. It's a premium device that has the disadvantage of being compared to its sibling the iPhone. The iPhone has an unfair perceived price advantage because it's subsidized by the carriers, so you're essentially taking out a 2 year $400 loan from the carrier.
Continuing with point #2 and the current state of the iPod lineup, Apple has been clearly doing its best to move iPod Touch inventory with the back-to-school bundles of free iPods with MacBooks. So I would think that it is highly likely that we'll be seeing an incremental bump to its configuration. Given that the iPhone v1, v2 and the iPod Touch all share the same basic platform (CPU, GPU etc.) I think that it would be unlikely to see anything drastically new here, but I think it would be highly likely to see the iPod Touch acquire an internal speaker and microphone which would transform it into a highly coveted VOIP platform for the home. Coupled with a native Skype/Gizmo client from the App store at launch this would add to the perceived value of the device.
Also worth noting that the VOIP client Siphon which was promoted by the ISP Free.fr as an app for jailbroken iPhones is supposed to be getting the green light for the App Store in September (french link). This would tie in very very nicely. I don't see GPS making it's way into the iPod Touch any time soon, unless it comes coupled with a version of TomTom navigator that uses local map data. Wifi is still not ubiquitous enough to be a viable solution for over the air map data. Otherwise you end up with something like what happens to me from time to time when I'm in an area with little or no coverage. The GPS works find, but without any backing data to draw upon it's not terribly useful (albeit rather amusing).
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I've been having a number of very interesting discussions with various people regarding the huge uptake on netbook style computers like the Eee PC and imitators. Out of the gate I thought that this was an idea doomed to irrelevance with the arrival of the iPhone, but after some reflection I'm starting to understand the market.
As usual the problem is being able to step outside of my own perspective and take a fresh look at the question. When I'm on the road, I have two modes of operation that are perfectly well served by the combination of an iPhone and a MacBook Pro. The iPhone handles on demand web, messaging, RSS and the like and fits in a pocket. I haul out the MacBook Pro when I'm going to do any serious work.
Where I missed the angle is that for many people, "serious work" involved basic word processing and spreadsheet work, whereas I'm likely to be working with very large spreadsheets, multiple virtual machine test beds, coding for Linux, Windows and OS X. And I'm further prejudiced by the notion of having to haul around a bag to hold the computer when the iPhone serves my day-to-day communication needs quite handily.
However, for many people the netbooks and really more a form of a poor man's MacBook Air. Ultra-portable, but without the same kind of horsepower since many of them simply don't need it.
Which brings me around to thinking that despite my original analysis that an Apple table or large screen iPod Touch makes little or no sense, there may in fact be a real market for this kind of device. Nokia has been catering to this niche market with it's lineup of Internet tablets, which are a step up from the UMPC form factor (although this is another fuzzy submarket that has difficulty in clearly defining its boundaries).
Additional factors that feeds fire to the imagination is the success of the Amazon Kindle and my personal (very positive) experience with eBook readers on the iPhone makes me seriously consider the viability of a Kindle (or paperback) sized device based on the iPhone touch enabled OS X platform. It's worth noting that even with the smaller screen, the iPhone and iPod Touch are becoming serious players in the eBook market. Apple already has all of the necessary components in place to add in eBook sales to the iTunes Store environment, including over the air sales.
Something else to consider in this mix is the currently unused Apple brand of the iBook. It's clear that the computing oriented products all take their cue from the Mac brand, while media lives in the iPod. Something to span the two would be the perfect re-use of the iBook brand.
With that kind of physical space to work with, the idea of a slider keyboard becomes a more viable engineering and ergonomics problem to be solved, thus transforming the device into a truly multipurpose platform.
Now the problem with this kind of device will always be price since Apple will certainly be pushing a powerful platform with a computer-type life span and not the underpowered devices that we currently see, plus the touch screen hardware adds significant cost. But the netbook market is growing along the same line as the iPhone - subsidized by a wireless carrier and sold with a USB 3G card and service. Apple now has all of the necessary contacts with carriers world-wide to enable the launch of such a product. The Kindle suffers from its Verizon-only US market exclusivity, despite Amazon's global presence.
An Apple designed convergent device that combines the best of the netbook platforms, UMPC and the Kindle would be a very very interesting device. This would also put it more in the computer camp than the iPhone camp, with hopefully more openness with regards to application development and deployment and without the same carrier imposed constraints since it would be a computing device first and foremost and not a phone.
I don't think that I would buy one, but I currently wouldn't buy a netbook, Kindle or UMPC.
But it certainly would be cool to play with one...
Andy (unauthenticated)
Aug 29, 2008 4:47 PM
Any chance you can re-format that with paragraphs, because it's pretty hard to read !
I personally don't think Apple has an interest in a UMPC or netbook or eBook reader: I seriously think that the iPod Touch and iPhone ARE Apple's UMPC. If you think about it, what most people want a UMPC for is web and email, and maybe at a push document creation - well, the iPhone does these things with varying levels of success, arguably as well as a UMPC.
I think Apple are due for a Macbook and Macbook Pro refresh (probably more of a change than we've been used to recently) - the desktops are probably due a refresh too, but not as urgently. Except the Mini, which has long been overdue an update. I wish Apple would add a mid-range desktop too, somewhere between the Mini and the Pro, but without the iMac's integrated display. I have money burning a hole in my pocket for a machine like that. RIGHT NOW.
Andy again (unauthenticated)
Aug 29, 2008 4:48 PM
BTW: what blog software is this ? It's pretty nice. It looks like the one that comes with Mac OS X Leopard Server, right ?
alphageek
Sep 1, 2008 11:32 AM
Thanks for the reminder about the paragraphs - I'd written it in MarsEdit, but forgotten to apply the paragraph tags. It should be better now. And yes, this is the standard wiki/blog software that ships with OS X Server (Leopard).
My personal hopes are for a mid-range version of the Mini as well since I find it to be a great multi-purpose machine and if you could put a decent video card in it, that would be the perfect media station (as long as it's still small and quiet). I added in a point that I'd forgotten to make regarding the netbook idea about the fact that Apple is sitting on the perfect brand for a reading oriented netbook - the iBook...